The Demographic Imagination and European Migration Futures

International geopolitical instability and the threat of ecological collapse generate widespread uncertainty about Europe’s future. A key focus of debate is the composition and structure of European populations. Demographic projections and media narratives depict an increasing ethno-racial diversity, with a growing “non-white populations” alongside an ageing and declining “white” population. Furthermore, narratives concerning the Global South emphasise population “imbalances” and the perceived threat of overpopulation that will spill over onto European soil. Although long-term projections of fertility, mortality, and migration are uncertain, the media, governments, and consultancies often interpret and "weaponise" them as precise forecasts, overlooking the complexity of migration and conveying a specific understanding of ethnicity and race.

Against the backdrop of the increasingly significant “demographic imagination,” this thematic issue focuses on migration and ‘population politics’ in Europe—the production, movement, and mobilisation of demographic projections, whether more or less scientifically based, in the context of migration. While some authors have explored demographic imaginaries and migration in the United States (e.g., Alba, 2020; Rodríguez-Múñiz, 2021), this issue focuses on imagined “migration futures” in Europe and their role in public discourse, policymaking, and the counter-narratives of social movements. More specifically, we invite contributions that explore one or more of the following questions:

• What imagined demographic futures do politicians, policymakers, and civil society actors produce and disseminate?
• How are demographic futures used as tools to shape political and social narratives and to politicise migratory changes?
• How are “European migration futures” politically mobilised and/or weaponised?
• How are demographic anxieties or threats (e.g., “replacement theory”) produced, spread, and legimitised?
• How do demographic images and expectations for “the future” of Europe structure decision-making and social organisation within the EU or its member states?
• When and how do population/migration projections legitimise specific migration, welfare, or border policies?
• To what extent do demographic counter-narratives or alternative “migration futures” emerge, for example, from social scientists, citizen movements, or the Global South (and its European diaspora)?

References

Alba, R. (2020). The great demographic illusion. Majority, minority, and the new expanding American mainstream. Princeton University Press.

Rodríguez-Muñiz, M. (2020). Towards a political sociology of demography. In T. Janoski, C. de Leon, J. Misra, & I. William Martin (Eds.), The new handbook of political sociology: States, parties, movements, citizenship and globalization (pp. 384–407). Cambridge Universirty Press.

Rodríguez-Muñiz, M. (2021). Figures of the future: Latino civil rights and the politics of demographic change. Princeton University Press.

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