Abstract:  A central feature of industrial policy today is governments’ growing willingness to direct economic activity into strategic sectors. However, identifying which sectors or technologies are strategic is not trivial, and little is known about how this is actually done. In this article, we introduce and conceptualize the notion of state capacity for strategic identification (SCSI), comprising internal capacity (to gather and validate information) and external capacity (to build consensus and coordinate around strategic priorities). We examine how SCSI has developed in the EU based on the need to identify strategic sectors for Important Projects of Common European Interest, one of the flagship initiatives of the EU’s new industrial policy. We analyze the evolution of SCSI from ad-hoc processes (2014) through the Strategic Forum (2018–2020) to the Joint European Forum (2023–present). Based on primary documents and original interviews, we document a process of policy learning where policy failures led to the gradual institutionalization of SCSI. We find that the Joint European Forum represents substantial external SCSI through institutionalized coordination and maintaining industry connections while avoiding capture, whereas internal SCSI remains more limited due to a lack of systematic integration of technical expertise.

Keywords:  industrial policy; IPCEI; geopolitics; single market; state capacity

Published:   Ahead of Print

Issue:   Vol 14 (2026): Doing Industrial Policy in a Geotech World: Challenges and Opportunities (In Progress)